《海洋预报》| 基于非结构网格全球模式的南极大气数值预报模型及其应用

摘要：基于非结构网格全球模式MPAS-A，研发建立了精细化南极大气数值预报模型。模型采用分辨率为0.25°的NCEP FNL数据作为驱动，可实现南极区域72 h时效、0.1°×0.1°分辨率的逐小时高时空分辨率气象预报。依托中山站全年地面站观测数据和中山冰雪机场夏季地面观测数据，对2023年11月1日起为期一年的数值模拟结果进行检验分析。检验结果表明，该数值预报模式在夏季（12月—次年2月）的模拟效果优于冬季（3—11月），能较好地预报极地高压、绕极气旋等影响系统，具备较高的可信度；但模式对相对湿度的模拟结果偏差较大。此外，结合中山冰雪机场地面保障和气象保障业务工作需求，对模式结果进行释用，开发了一系列针对航空保障的预报产品，并为第 40次、第 41次南极考察期间“雪鹰 601”航空器和中山冰雪机场的运行提供气象保障服务，获得航空作业队的认可。

关键词：南极航空气象 MPAS-A 非结构网格 数值天气预报系统 南极考察

Abstract：Based on the global non-hydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) with an unstructured grid framework, this study developed a refined atmospheric numerical prediction system for Antarctica. Driven by the NCEP Final (FNL) Operational Global Analysis data at 0.25° resolution, the system achieves 72-hour forecasts over Antarctica with a high spatiotemporal resolution (0.1° × 0.1° grid spacing, hourly). Validation covering a one-year simulation starting from 1 November 2023 was conducted against yearround surface observational data from Zhongshan Station and summertime observational data from Zhongshan Skiway. The model demonstrates superior performance in summer (December-February) compared to winter (March-November). It reliably predicts critical polar meteorological systems with high credibility, including polar high-pressure systems and circumpolar cyclones. Larger biases persist in the simulated relative humidity compared to observations. For operational aviation support at Zhongshan Skiway, this study developed specialized forecasting products based on post-processing model outputs. With operational effectiveness acknowledged by aviation teams, these products have provided critical meteorological support for flight operations of "Snow Eagle 601" aircraft during the 40th and 41st Chinese Antarctic Research Expeditions.

Key words：Antarctic aviation meteorology; MPAS-A; unstructured grids; numerical weather prediction system; Chinese Antarctic Research Expeditions

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